Tanking is the biggest problem right now in the NBA, and it may be cured sooner rather than later. Per Grantland’s NBA robot Zach Lowe, the NBA has officially submitted a proposal that may be the solution to tanking. It boils down to this: evening out the odds of winning the lottery for all 14 lottery teams. Basically, why try to lose as many games as possible, if you will only have a minimally better chance at winning the top pick? Right now, here are the odds of winning the lottery for the four worst teams in the league, in order from worst team to fourth-worst: 25.0%, 19.90%, 13.80%, and 13.70%. The current lottery odds for each of the 14 teams is below. (Click to enlarge.)
The new proposal would decrease the incentive to tank. Each of the bottom four teams would have an 11% chance at winning the lottery. And the team with the worst odds of winning the lottery would have a 2% chance under the new proposal, rather than a 0.5% chance. This evening out of the odds should decrease the likelihood of a race to the bottom by tanking teams. What’s the timetable for such a change to the lottery process? From Lowe:
The league could implement lottery reform as early as next season, though there are many hurdles to overcome before then. And it’s important to note that the league has kicked around several different proposals with varying weights; the 11 percent figure for the first teams is not universal among those proposals, sources say.